Tomorrow's the big night, so I'll cut to the chase. Since I believe during Oscars predictions, people usually mix up what they think "should win" with what they predict "will win", like prior years I'll separate the two:
Best Picture:(
Avatar,
The Blind Side,
District 9,
An Education,
The Hurt Locker,
Inglourious Basterds,
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire,
A Serious Man,
Up,
Up in the Air)
I can't believe Best Picture this year has become the toughest Oscar to predict. Obviously the choice is between
Avatar and
The Hurt Locker. And even though there's been a huge amount of publicity for
Avatar as best film of the year (at least it was my top movie of the year), there's been some gaining interest in
The Hurt Locker during the past weeks.
Should win:
AvatarWill win:
The Hurt Locker
Best Director:
(James Cameron for
Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow for
The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino for
Inglourious Basterds, Lee Daniels for
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, Jason Reitman for
Up in the Air)
Not much of a competition here. Cameron already has an Oscar for Titanic, and the Academy loves titles like "first ---- Oscar winner ever!" (fill in the blank with "female, black, gay, hermaphrodite, quadriplegic, etc). So the Oscar will go to Cameron's ex, Kathryn Bigelow, the first female director Oscar winner ever.
Should win: James Cameron
Will win:
Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor:
(Jeff Bridges in
Crazy Heart, George Clooney in
Up in the Air, Colin Firth in
A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in
Invictus, Jeremy Renner in
The Hurt Locker)
Jeff Bridges has been acting forever, has been nominated 4 times before without a win, and his
Crazy Heart performance was a tour de force.
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Will win:
Jeff Bridges
Best Actress:
(Sandra Bullock in
The Blind Side, Helen Mirren in
The Last Station, Carey Mulligan in
An Education, Gabourey Sidibe in "
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire", Meryl Streep in
Julie & Julia)
If you're asking me, Carey Mulligan should win for
An Education (unfortunately nobody ever asked me).
But she's a nobody in Hollywood, so the award will go to a somebody. Streep has been nominated
n times before, and hasn't won for the past 28 years since
Sophie's Choice, so she may become the wild card Sunday night. But Hollywood has a reputation of preferring to glamorize younger performers, so Sandra Bullock's authoritarian tear-jerker performance in the cliche-filled
The Blind Side will take home the prize.
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Will win:
Sandra Bullock
Best Supporting Actor:(Matt Damon in
Invictus, Woody Harrelson in
The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in
The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in
The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz in
Inglourious Basterds)
Among the nominees, I've only seen
Invictus and
Inglourious Basterds. But you can bet your house on it: Waltz is the winner. He's won every award under the sun - and deservedly so.
Should win: Christoph Waltz
Will win:
Christoph WaltzBest Supporting Actress:(Penélope Cruz in
Nine, Vera Farmiga in
Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal in
Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick in
Up in the Air, Mo'Nique in
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire).
Same story here. Mo'Nique will win . Don't even ask. But I personally prefer Maggie Gyllenhaal to win, because her presence in
Crazy Heart was almost as dominating as Bridges, and I also didn't like
Precious.
Should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Will win:
Mo'NiqueBest Original Screenplay:(
The Hurt Locker,
Inglourious Basterds,
The Messenger,
A Serious Man,
Up)
There's been some talk about
The Hurt Locker winning this one. But you know what? I can't imagine how QT's
Inglourious Basterds could not win. The bastard (no pun intended) virtually rewrote WWII history! Now who could have ever had such audacity?
Should win:
Inglourious BasterdsWill win:
Inglourious BasterdsBest Adapted Screenplay:(
District 9,
An Education,
In the Loop,
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire,
Up in the Air)
Poor former front-runner
Up in the Air is going to lose in all other categories, so it'll win this one. And to be honest, it's a great metaphor of our times.
Should win:
Up in the AirWill win:
Up in the AirBest Foreign Language Film:(
Ajami - Israel
, El Secreto de Sus Ojos - Argentina,
The Milk of Sorrow - Peru,
Un Prophète - France,
The White Ribbon - Germany)
This category acts strangely every once in a while. In 2008
Departures won over
Waltz with Bashir, in 2006
The Lives of Others won over
Pan's Labyrinth, in 2004
The Sea Inside won over
The Chorus, in 2002
Nowhere in Africa won over
El Crime del Padre Amaro, and in 2001
No Man's Land won over
Amelie; while in each of these years, the latter film was the critics' favorite.
This year Michael Haneke's
The White Ribbon appears to be the obvious winner (it won the Palm d'Or at Cannes, and its message is too strong to ignore), but during the past weeks, there's been some major buzz surrounding
Un Prophète (
A Prophet) from France - it won the BAFTA award (UK's Oscar equivalent) for Best Foreign Film, and the Best Film of the European Film Awards. Although I believe
The White Ribbon is worthy of great recognition, I'm taking a risk on this category.
Should win:
The White RibbonWill win:
Un ProphèteAnd predictions for other categories:
- Best Animated Feature Film:
Up (Pixar always wins.)
- Best Animated Short Film:
A Matter of Loaf and Death (The Academy loves Wallace and Gromit.)
- Best Documentary Feature Film:
The Cove.
- Best Documentary Short Film:
Music by Prudence
- Best Live Action Short Film:
The New Tenants
- Best Editing:
The Hurt Locker (Because the Editor's Guild said so!)
- Best Art Direction:
Avatar - Best Cinematography:
Avatar- Best Makeup:
Star Trek- Best Original Score:
Up- Best Original Song:
Crazy Heart (for "The Weary Kind")
- Best Costume:
The Young Victoria- Best Sound Editing:
Avatar- Best Sound Mixing:
Avatar- Best Visual Effects:
Avatar* * *So even though apparently
Avatar will win huge in terms of number, the most memorable Oscars (the ones that will make it "
X movie's year") will go to
The Hurt Locker.
See you after the show! (Or even before the show, as you're very welcome to post your predictions, if you disagree with me.)
