This was the first year that except for Best Foreign Language and short subject categories, I was able to watch all nominees in the 20 other categories. As though that changes anything.
So here are my predictions for tomorrow night's show. As usual, I've separated what I want to win, from what I predict will win. Make sure you do some heavy gambling on the latter.
Best Picture:
(
Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty)
The announcement of the main award winner will probably be the depressing moment of the night. Artistically, technically, and historically (Oscar history, I mean), a movie like
Lincoln should win, nine times out of ten. But then
Argo won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the AFI awards for Best Picture of the Year. I sincerely try not to buy into the conspiracy theory that movie awards are politically motivated - or at least not to the extent of naming a Iran-hostage crisis themed movie as the best film of the year, when there were so many superior options out there. But if
Argo wins, I wouldn't fathom any other way to explain it.
Should win:
Lincoln
Will win:
Argo
Best Director:
(((9
(Michael Haneke for
Amour, Ang Lee for
Life of Pi, David O. Russell for
Silver Linings Playbook, Steven Spielberg for
Lincoln, Benh Zeitlin for
Beasts of the Southern Wild)
When it comes to the Oscar for Best Direction, look for grand scale events.
Amour Silver Linings, and
Beasts were all small movies. I loved
Lincoln (or better said, I love whatever Spielberg touches), but the sheer magnitude of directing film like
Life of Pi must have been a killer. Spielberg already has two Oscars; Ang Lee has one. Lee may become the surprise of the night, but I'm still betting on Spielberg.
Should win: Steven Spielberg
Will win:
Steven Spielberg
Best Actor:
(
(Bradley Cooper for
Silver Linings Playbook, Daniel Day-Lewis for
Lincoln, Hugh Jackman for
Les Misérables, Joaquin Phoenix for
The Master, Denzel Washington for
Flight)
Don't even bother betting on anybody else. Daniel Day-Lewis has proven he's the best actor alive. No, not De Niro, not Hanks, not Pacino. Daniel Day-Lewis is the best actor alive.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win:
Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress:
(Jessica Chastain for
Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence for
Silver Linings Playbook, Emmanuelle Riva for
Amour, Quvenzhané Wallis for
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts for
The Impossible)
I believe hyping about Riva and Wallis being the oldest and youngest Best Actress nominees ever, respectively, is just part of the show. The main competition here is between Chastain and Lawrence, as both received a Golden Globe - Chastain for best in a drama role, Lawrence for best in a comedy role. Critics say Lawrence was brilliant at giving her character's manic-depressive personality a comedic tone in
Silver Linings; I say Chastain was able to personify the frustration, the anger and the hopelessness of hunting down the world's most wanted man in
Zero Dark Thirty. But I'm predicting Lawrence to win, just because she also won the Screen Actor's Guild Award.
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Will win:
Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor:
(Alan Arkin for
Argo, Robert De Niro for
Silver Linings Playbook, Philip Seymour Hoffman for
The Master, Tommy Lee Jones for
Lincoln, Christoph Waltz for
Django Unchained)
As opposed to every year where Best Supporting Actress is the toughest category to predict, this year Best Supporting Actor is almost impossible to predict. All five nominees are prior Oscar winners, and Arkin probably has the lowest chance here. Otherwise, Waltz got the Golden Globe, Jones got the Guild Award, and
Entertainment Weekly gives De Niro the highest odds at winning ... but by only 1% over Jones (31% to 30%, respectively). Still, I'm voting for Jones; his Thaddeus Stevens in
Lincoln was a centerpiece against the hulk of Day-Lewis in the sprawling movie.
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones
Will win:
Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress:
(Amy Adams for
The Master, Sally Field for
Lincoln, Anne Hathaway for
Les Misérables, Helen Hunt for
The Sessions, Jacki Weaver for
Silver Linings Playbook)
It's Hathaway, all the way. She's another one of those Hollywood sweethearts the movie business invests in, and are sooner or later bound to get an Oscar. And her unimaginably-long close-up singing and crying "I Dreamed a Dream" was one of the year's best movie moments. And this may be the Academy's apology for leaving her out there to dry by her weird co-host during the horrible Oscar telecast two years ago.
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Will win:
Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay:
(
Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty)
Watch the movies, look at the list. It's obvious
Django had this year's best original screenplay,
because dialogue is Tarantino's greatest asset. But he already got an Oscar for
Pulp Fiction's screenplay, and considering the number of times the N-word is used in
Django, if he wins this one, there will probably be a riot.
Zero Dark Thirty had the most fascinating script, but the subject was so caught up in controversy, rewarding it seems too risky. The Academy will likely go with Michael Haneke's more mellow but very compelling screenplay - a deep drama almost entirely happening between an old couple in a small apartment, which is no easy feat.
Should win:
Django Unchained
Will win:
Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay:
(
Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook)
A no-brainer. Historians believe the screenplay written by Tony Kushner (of
Munich and
Angels in America fame), not only dived into the history of Lincoln politics, but also expanded upon it. And we're talking about a US president whose decisions have vastly contradictory historical interpretations.
Should win:
Lincoln
Will win:
Lincoln
Best Documentary Feature Film:
(
5 Broken Cameras,
The Gatekeepers,
How to Survive a Plague,
The Invisible War,
Searching for Sugar Man)
Wow, what a year for documentaries. And two that I thought were among the year's best (
Bully and
The Imposter) didn't even make the nominees' list! Predictions are that
Searching for Sugar Man has a good chance to win (and I'm not denying that it was a decent film), but when it comes to documentaries, anything related to the Holocaust or the Arab-Israeli conflict is in priority. This year, two films (
5 Broken Cameras and
The Gatekeepers) matched those criteria - the former from the Palestinian side, the latter the Israeli side. The latter is far superior, on multiple levels.
Should win:
The Gatekeepers
Will win:
The Gatekeepers
And for predictions in other categories, mainly based on hearsay:
- Best Animated Short Film: Paperman
- Best Documentary Short Film: Inocente
- Best Live Action Short Film: Death of a Shadow
- Best Art Direction: Anna Karenina
- Best Cinematography:
Life of Pi (Remember that underwater shot of the sinking ship?)
- Best Original Score:
Life of Pi
- Best Original Song:
Skyfall (You know, Adele. Skyfall.)
- Best Costume: Anna Karenina
- Best Visual Effects:
Life of Pi (Remember ... the whole movie?)
.
