My 2011 Oscars Predictions

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Ready for some gambling? Here are my predictions for tomorrow night's show:

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Best Picture:

(Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)

In my humble opinion, Inception was not only the year's best film, it was one of the best movies ever made. Unfortunately, it was screened too early in the year for the Academy to remember, and even though the Oscar buzz for Best Picture initially started going for The Social Network, the awards year ended with a huge push for The King's Speech.

Should win: Inception

Will win: The King's Speech

Best Director:

(Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, David O. Russell for The Fighter, Tom Hooper for The King's Speech, David Fincher for The Social Network, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit)

Midway through the movie, The Social Network has a sailing contest sequence that is incredibly well-directed. Almost all of Darren Aronofsky's movies are that well-done. So if it was me, I would have gone for Aronofsky. But who ever asked me? To compensate for the The Social Network's Best Picture to loss to The King's Speech, Fincher will take the award home.

Should win: Darren Aronofsky

Will win: David Fincher

Best Actor:

(Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network, Colin Firth in The King's Speech, James Franco in 127 Hours)

Can we not waste any time on this one?

Should win: Colin Firth

Will win: Colin Firth

Best Actress:

(Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman in Black Swan, Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine)

This will be so sad. Annette Bening is such an incredible actress, she's been nominated four times already, and lost the prior three to a younger actress (once to Jodie Foster, twice to Hillary Swank). This year, she'll probably lose again to another young hottie (Natalie Portman), while she's obviously done a better job in The Kids Are All Right.

Should win: Annette Bening

Will win: Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor:

(Christian Bale in The Fighter, John Hawkes in Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner in The Town, Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech)

Again, not much of a competition here.

Should win: Christian Bale

Will win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress:

(Amy Adams in The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, Melissa Leo in The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom).

Every year's wild card is buried in this category. Hands down, none of the nominees top Jacki Weaver's "Godmother" role in Animal Kingdom. Among the other four, until two weeks ago everything was going for Melissa Leo, but then ... she pulled a sleazy act, advertising herself in a tacky picture. Ever since, there's been a rush of attention around the 16-year old first-timer Hailee Steinfeld.

Should win: Jacki Weaver

Will win: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Original Screenplay:

(Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech)

Another tragedy will happen here. Christopher Nolan's 9-year-in-the-writing Inception screenplay, one of the most intelligent scripts ever written, will be passed over for The King's Speech - again because of bad timing in the case of Inception.

Should win: Inception

Will win: The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:

(127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)

Aaron Sorkin all the way. The Social Network is a movie running 2 hours purely on dialogue. Can't get any more exciting than that.

Should win: The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network

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And predictions for other categories:

- Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World (Denmark)

- Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3

- Best Animated Short Film: The Gruffalo

- Best Documentary Feature Film: Inside Job

- Best Documentary Short Film: Killing in the Name

- Best Live Action Short Film: The Confession

- Best Editing: The Social Network

- Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

- Best Cinematography: True Grit

- Best Makeup: The Wolfman

- Best Original Score: Inception

(I'm taking a real risk on this one. If it's going to be a King's Speech sweep tomorrow night, Alexander Desplat who has never won an Oscar should win for his soundtrack on this one. But I feel Hans Zimmer's soundtrack for Inception is too good to lose, even though Zimmer has already won an Oscar before, for The Lion King.)

- Best Original Song: 127 Hours ("If I Rise")

- Best Costume: Alice in Wonderland

- Best Sound Editing / Sound Mixing: Inception

- Best Visual Effects: Inception

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The Oscar season started out as a Social Network year, but apparently, King's Speech will be the one.

See you after the show.