Friday, February 25, 2011

My 2011 Oscars Predictions

Ready for some gambling? Here are my predictions for tomorrow night's show:

* * *

Best Picture:

(Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)

In my humble opinion, Inception was not only the year's best film, it was one of the best movies ever made. Unfortunately, it was screened too early in the year for the Academy to remember, and even though the Oscar buzz for Best Picture initially started going for The Social Network, the awards year ended with a huge push for The King's Speech.

Should win: Inception

Will win: The King's Speech

Best Director:

(Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, David O. Russell for The Fighter, Tom Hooper for The King's Speech, David Fincher for The Social Network, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit)

Midway through the movie, The Social Network has a sailing contest sequence that is incredibly well-directed. Almost all of Darren Aronofsky's movies are that well-done. So if it was me, I would have gone for Aronofsky. But who ever asked me? To compensate for the The Social Network's Best Picture to loss to The King's Speech, Fincher will take the award home.

Should win: Darren Aronofsky

Will win: David Fincher

Best Actor:

(Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network, Colin Firth in The King's Speech, James Franco in 127 Hours)

Can we not waste any time on this one?

Should win: Colin Firth

Will win: Colin Firth

Best Actress:

(Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman in Black Swan, Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine)

This will be so sad. Annette Bening is such an incredible actress, she's been nominated four times already, and lost the prior three to a younger actress (once to Jodie Foster, twice to Hillary Swank). This year, she'll probably lose again to another young hottie (Natalie Portman), while she's obviously done a better job in The Kids Are All Right.

Should win: Annette Bening

Will win: Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor:

(Christian Bale in The Fighter, John Hawkes in Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner in The Town, Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech)

Again, not much of a competition here.

Should win: Christian Bale

Will win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress:

(Amy Adams in The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, Melissa Leo in The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom).

Every year's wild card is buried in this category. Hands down, none of the nominees top Jacki Weaver's "Godmother" role in Animal Kingdom. Among the other four, until two weeks ago everything was going for Melissa Leo, but then ... she pulled a sleazy act, advertising herself in a tacky picture. Ever since, there's been a rush of attention around the 16-year old first-timer Hailee Steinfeld.

Should win: Jacki Weaver

Will win: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Original Screenplay:

(Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech)

Another tragedy will happen here. Christopher Nolan's 9-year-in-the-writing Inception screenplay, one of the most intelligent scripts ever written, will be passed over for The King's Speech - again because of bad timing in the case of Inception.

Should win: Inception

Will win: The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:

(127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)

Aaron Sorkin all the way. The Social Network is a movie running 2 hours purely on dialogue. Can't get any more exciting than that.

Should win: The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network

* * *

And predictions for other categories:

- Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World (Denmark)

- Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3

- Best Animated Short Film: The Gruffalo

- Best Documentary Feature Film: Inside Job

- Best Documentary Short Film: Killing in the Name

- Best Live Action Short Film: The Confession

- Best Editing: The Social Network

- Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

- Best Cinematography: True Grit

- Best Makeup: The Wolfman

- Best Original Score: Inception

(I'm taking a real risk on this one. If it's going to be a King's Speech sweep tomorrow night, Alexander Desplat who has never won an Oscar should win for his soundtrack on this one. But I feel Hans Zimmer's soundtrack for Inception is too good to lose, even though Zimmer has already won an Oscar before, for The Lion King.)

- Best Original Song: 127 Hours ("If I Rise")

- Best Costume: Alice in Wonderland

- Best Sound Editing / Sound Mixing: Inception

- Best Visual Effects: Inception

* * *

The Oscar season started out as a Social Network year, but apparently, King's Speech will be the one.

See you after the show.


  1. So…How fortune I am for living in a country where for writing in a Movie Weblog I need an Anti filter !

    My predictions are :

    1.Actor in a Leading Role :
    Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”

    2.Actor in a Supporting Role:
    Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

    3.Actress in a Leading Role:
    Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”

    4.Actress in a Supporting Role:
    Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

    5.Art Direction:
    “Alice in Wonderland”

    “True Grit”


    “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper

    8.Documentary (Feature):

    “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger

    9.Animated Feature Film

    “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

    10.Costume Design:

    “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood

    11.Film Editing:

    “The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter


    The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

    13.Music (Original Score):

    “The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat

    14.Music (Original Song):

    We belong together (Toy story 3)

    15.Visual Effects:


    16.Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

    “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin

    17.Writing (Original Screenplay):

    “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

    18.Sound Editing :


    19.Sound mixing:


    20.Best picture :
    King speech

    * I agree and enjoyed mostly with your comments even for those i pick up another option. Some choices are so tough and winning all competetors makes me happy without doubt...very nice job this year for all leading and supporting artists...all of them were perfect!
    let see what happen tonight although i'm not sure yet ,is there any open channel in sattelite to air live ceremoney for us here or not! I Hope so..

  2. I hope so too.

    But seriously ... what an honor for my blog to have been blocked by the Islamic Republic! It makes me feel important!

    And if they don't like my blog, that means it must be really good! Idiots ...


  3. You are important and your blog is really good...but let us pray theses idiots open it! it's tribbly slow and made me crazy!;-)

  4. Thanks for the encouragement.


  5. Congrads! first correct for both!but i pick up Inception at first but changed to true told consider the beauty of views and perspective of scenes for Cinamatography!;-)
    No worried Roger Ebert did mistake too

  6. And now Melissa Leo won! Things aren't going good for me.

    Are you watching it live?

  7. Yesss!i'm watching every year live..shabe Ahyast!
    But Toy Story &Adopted and original Screenplay is encouraging.we are in luck!

  8. Franco and Hathaway are a doing terrible job. So lame.

  9. exacatly! I was looking for proper word...lame! but bravo for foriegn language to you! very tough
    And supporting actor goes to.....hmmmmm
    oh oh oh congrads to Bale ....and you all guys!

  10. What?!!!!! The gave soundtrack to Social Network?!!!!


  11. Not original score but mixing &edit sound ..agree some awards are music was totally network??never thought about thanx for wolfman

  12. Well...Alice didn't dissapointed us! Do you see how match Burton and his wife are !both are starnge and weird...and another fan of Casablanca : President Obama !me and Ebert and Farmanara and him but not you !

    I love this man : Kevin /spasy whenevr i see him just smile, do you?

  13. I was amazed at Obama. I knew you would love that moment.

    What cool people these are.

  14. Well done ...another tough choice , however, you are master in this genre.

  15. Thank you ...thank you...thank you

  16. last the result for me was not bad: 14 correct,in comparison to last year more improvement..
    Again great job for all of your true choices.
    thank you for nice conversation. It was fun i should go to sleep!.Adios

  17. I enjoyed the interaction too. My end results were 14 out of 24 also, but that was a downgrade for me compared to last year.

    Have a nice sleep! :-)