Saturday, March 6, 2010

My 2010 Oscars Predictions

Tomorrow's the big night, so I'll cut to the chase. Since I believe during Oscars predictions, people usually mix up what they think "should win" with what they predict "will win", like prior years I'll separate the two:

Best Picture:

(Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air)

I can't believe Best Picture this year has become the toughest Oscar to predict. Obviously the choice is between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. And even though there's been a huge amount of publicity for Avatar as best film of the year (at least it was my top movie of the year), there's been some gaining interest in The Hurt Locker during the past weeks.

Should win: Avatar

Will win: The Hurt Locker

Best Director:

(James Cameron for Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds, Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, Jason Reitman for Up in the Air)

Not much of a competition here.
Cameron already has an Oscar for Titanic, and the Academy loves titles like "first ---- Oscar winner ever!" (fill in the blank with "female, black, gay, hermaphrodite, quadriplegic, etc). So the Oscar will go to Cameron's ex, Kathryn Bigelow, the first female director Oscar winner ever.

Should win: James Cameron

Will win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor:

(Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, George Clooney in Up in the Air, Colin Firth in A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus, Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker)

Jeff Bridges has been acting forever, has been nominated 4 times before without a win, and his Crazy Heart performance was a tour de force.

Should win: Jeff Bridges

Will win: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress:

(Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, Helen Mirren in The Last Station, Carey Mulligan in An Education, Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire", Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia)

If you're asking me, Carey Mulligan should win for An Education (unfortunately nobody ever asked me). But she's a nobody in Hollywood, so the award will go to a somebody. Streep has been nominated n times before, and hasn't won for the past 28 years since Sophie's Choice, so she may become the wild card Sunday night. But Hollywood has a reputation of preferring to glamorize younger performers, so Sandra Bullock's authoritarian tear-jerker performance in the cliche-filled The Blind Side will take home the prize.

Should win: Carey Mulligan

Will win: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor:

(Matt Damon in Invictus, Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds)

Among the nominees, I've only seen Invictus and Inglourious Basterds. But you can bet your house on it: Waltz is the winner. He's won every award under the sun - and deservedly so.

Should win: Christoph Waltz

Will win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress:

(Penélope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire).

Same story here. Mo'Nique will win . Don't even ask. But I personally prefer Maggie Gyllenhaal to win, because her presence in Crazy Heart was almost as dominating as Bridges, and I also didn't like Precious.

Should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Will win: Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay:

(The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up)

There's been some talk about The Hurt Locker winning this one. But you know what? I can't imagine how QT's Inglourious Basterds could not win. The bastard (no pun intended) virtually rewrote WWII history! Now who could have ever had such audacity?

Should win: Inglourious Basterds

Will win: Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay:

(District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, Up in the Air)

Poor former front-runner Up in the Air is going to lose in all other categories, so it'll win this one. And to be honest, it's a great metaphor of our times.

Should win: Up in the Air

Will win: Up in the Air

Best Foreign Language Film:

(Ajami - Israel, El Secreto de Sus Ojos - Argentina, The Milk of Sorrow - Peru, Un Prophète - France, The White Ribbon - Germany)

This category acts strangely every once in a while. In 2008 Departures won over Waltz with Bashir, in 2006 The Lives of Others won over Pan's Labyrinth, in 2004 The Sea Inside won over The Chorus, in 2002 Nowhere in Africa won over El Crime del Padre Amaro, and in 2001 No Man's Land won over Amelie; while in each of these years, the latter film was the critics' favorite.

This year Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon appears to be the obvious winner (it won the Palm d'Or at Cannes, and its message is too strong to ignore), but during the past weeks, there's been some major buzz surrounding Un Prophète (A Prophet) from France - it won the BAFTA award (UK's Oscar equivalent) for Best Foreign Film, and the Best Film of the European Film Awards. Although I believe The White Ribbon is worthy of great recognition, I'm taking a risk on this category.

Should win: The White Ribbon

Will win: Un Prophète

And predictions for other categories:

- Best Animated Feature Film: Up (Pixar always wins.)

- Best Animated Short Film: A Matter of Loaf and Death (The Academy loves Wallace and Gromit.)

- Best Documentary Feature Film: The Cove.

- Best Documentary Short Film: Music by Prudence

- Best Live Action Short Film: The New Tenants

- Best Editing: The Hurt Locker (Because the Editor's Guild said so!)

- Best Art Direction: Avatar

- Best Cinematography: Avatar

- Best Makeup: Star Trek

- Best Original Score: Up

- Best Original Song: Crazy Heart (for "The Weary Kind")

- Best Costume: The Young Victoria

- Best Sound Editing: Avatar

- Best Sound Mixing: Avatar

- Best Visual Effects: Avatar

* * *

So even though apparently Avatar will win huge in terms of number, the most memorable Oscars (the ones that will make it "X movie's year") will go to The Hurt Locker.

See you after the show! (Or even before the show, as you're very welcome to post your predictions, if you disagree with me.)


  1. I wasn't thinking there was much controversy in probable winners, but your predictions have made things interesting! Your guess is as good as mine -- no, probably better. But there are two differences which I feel worth mentioning:

    Best film: Avatar
    (The "Hurt Locker" producer hurt their chances with the stupid email fiasco, so they'll probably have to pay by losing at least one of the two main awards; Bigelow will probably get best director)

    Best actress: Streep

  2. The thought about the email fiasco occurred to me too, but if I recall correctly, the news became widespread while there was only a few days left for the Academy voters to vote. Many had probably already sent in their ballots by that time.

    Somebody told me today that Richard Roeper said the battle of Best Actress is going to be between Streep and Mulligan, because both were excellent in their roles, and it would incredibly unfair if Bullock wins, because of all the crap she usually plays in. So your prediction of Streep (or my hope on Mulligan!) may come out true.

  3. I think Hurt Locker will get the Original Screenplay (WGA winner). I also think White Ribbon will prevail. I really hope Avatar wins the best picture. When a movie sells this much tickets it means majority of people liked it. Who are those few thousand Academy members to argue with these numbers? But again Hurt Locker has won all the awards so far (except for Golden Globe).

  4. The element that might work to Avatar's disadvantage, is that this is the exact same premise that Titanic had its sweeping win 11 years ago: huge numbers, and huge dollars. Even though I think Avatar was a far superior movie to Titanic, we'll have to wait and see if the Academy will buy that premise again.

  5. Actually I have no special objection with yours We are in common in main nominees this year! ,except in some categories like Best adapted screenplay and Art direction & make up and original score and a few number options which I honesty pick up mostly by chance!
    And about foreign movie i guess white ribbon wins ,however ,I liked "A prophet " more.
    See you after ceremony!

  6. Well ... on the lesser known categories, I just cheated! I just checked to see what other well known movie communities had predicted. :-)))

  7. First surprise of the night: Precious won over Up in the Air

  8. Sound Editing and Sound Mixing to Hurt Locker
    Does this mean a sweep by Hurt Locker?


    Both screenplays were a downer - QT didn't win! :-(

    And now both sound awards have gone wrong.

    Let's see what happens next ... Best Foreign is coming up ...

  10. Neither "White Ribbon", nor "Un Prophet"!!!

    What's going on tonight?

  11. Hurt Locker sweep, damn!

  12. I think I won my office's Oscar pool!

  13. Well, at least I was right about one thing: your guess was better than mine!

  14. To be honest, till very last second I still thought (or hoped) either Streep or Mulligan will get the Best Actress. I was watching the show with a group of people, and everbody became silent the moment Bullock's name was called.

  15. I wish i knew you all were on-line here!I was totally alone through watching ,since nobody was ready to accompany me from 3 Am till morning here!:-(

  16. Maybe we'll do that next year!