My 2018 Oscar Predictions

It's a year with no front-runner, too many distracting sociopolitical events, and not many masterpieces (IMO) among the nominees. In other words, it's a tough year to predict.

So let's just cut to the chase:


Best Picture:

(Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Mainly a three-way race between Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, and Get Out. The only way Get Out has a chance is if the votes get divided between the first two. Otherwise, it's either Three Billboards,or The Shape of Water. And no matter how all predictions are gathering around The Shape of Water, remind me the last time a fantasy/sci-fi won Best Picture ("15" years ago, for LOTR). While I myself had a major issue with Three Billboards, it's a conversation starter about big social drama, also known as racism. And the Academy likes that.

Should Win: Dunkirk

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Director:

(((9   

(Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, Jordan Peele for Get Out, Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water)

... so since they can't help The Shape of Water through Best Picture, they'll hand it Best Director - even though usually the two awards go hand-in-hand to the same film. Guillermo del Toro is a visionary, and it's high time he won an Oscar. Also, he's Mexican, which works as a middle finger to Trump.

Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water


Best Actor:
(

(Timothée Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name, Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out, Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

This is one of the year's forgone conclusions. And totally deserved.

Should Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour

Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour


Best Actress:


(Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water, Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie for I, Tonya, Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird, Meryl Streep for The Post)

Both Frances McDormand and Soairse Ronan won Golden Globes (one for dramatic role, the other for comedy). Everybody is buzzing McDormand, McDormand, McDormand. Totally agree; she deserves a second Oscar for her Three Billboards performance. But since when it comes to choosing between young and old, the Academy goes with young, I'm willing to risk on this one.

Should Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird


Best Supporting Actor:

(Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water, Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Ooooh ... I so much want Willem Dafoe to win. He's the seasoned actor with three nominations and no wins, and was the heart of The Florida Project - a beautiful film, with this being its sole nomination. Rockwell has raked up most of the awards, so statistically the Oscar should go to him, even though his character in the movie has received some recent backlash, due to portraying the semi-redemption of an irredeemable racist. Still, I'd rather not bet on a Dafoe win.

Should Win: Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project

Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Supporting Actress:

(Mary J. Blige for Mudbound, Allison Janney for I, Tonya, Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water)

Another easy one. Allison Janney has won most of the major awards. But can you imagine a movie, where another actor can make Daniel Day-Lewis look ... small? Lesley Manville is always perfect.

Should Win: Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread

Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya



Best Original Screenplay:

(The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

(Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound)

The screenplay nominees I've predicted to win will win, because the Academy wouldn't want these two films left totally empty-handed by the end of the night. But if it was up to me: a) I have no doubt about Get Out's writing merits, and b) I think what master-screenwriter and first-time director Aaron Sorkin achieved in Molly’s Game, was beyond difficult.

Should Win: Get Out, Molly’s Game

Will Win:  Get Out, Call Me by Your Name




And for other categories ...


- Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman

- Best Editing: Dunkirk

- Best Production Design: The Shape of Water

- Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049

- Best Makeup: Darkest Hour

- Best Original Score: The Shape of Water

- Best Original Song: Coco

- Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread

- Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk


- Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk

- Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

- Best Animated Feature Film: Coco

 

- Best Animated Short Film: Dear Basketball

- Best Documentary Feature Film: Faces/Places

- Best Documentary Short Film: Heroin(e)

- Best Live Action Short Film:  The Silent Child